Sunday, May 20, 2012

Other News

 2012 Home building outlook: Builders largely optimistic about growth

Despite the obstacles and challenges, a large number of builders are feeling optimistic about their prospects for 2012, according to Professional Builder's 2012 Market Outlook survey.

By David Barista, Editor-in-Chief, Professional Builder
December 18, 2011
2012 home building outlook: Builders largely optimistic about growth More than four in 10 survey respondents said they anticipate higher revenue in 2012, while only about 22 percent expect revenue to drop.

Nearly six years removed from the start of the housing bubble burst, the home-building industry remains largely bruised and battered from the aftereffects — including steep home-price declines, an influx of foreclosures and short sales, dried-up project financing, a shaky mortgage market, and, more recently, political debate in Washington about the viability of a key underpinning of the U.S. housing market: the mortgage-interested deduction.

No other U.S. industry has been impacted as negatively by the Great Recession than the construction sector, and Home building has taken the brunt of the force. Of the 1.98 million construction jobs lost since the beginning of 2006, the residential construction sector has accounted for more than 70 percent of them. Furthermore, heading into 2012, housing starts are off 69 percent since the market peak in 2005 and average U.S. Home prices continue to hover at mid-2003 levels.

Yet, despite the obstacles and challenges that remain, a large number of builders are feeling optimistic about their prospects for 2012, and for valid reasons. While the road to a housing recovery has been a bumpy one, several key market metrics, including housing starts, have steadily trended higher during the past 12 to 18 months. Mortgage interest rates are at historic lows, and the surge in demand for rental housing has caused rental rates to skyrocket, putting the average monthly mortgage payment in many markets on par with the typical rent payment.

Moreover, builders with financial resources have been able to take advantage of depressed land values and the distressed property market to snatch up assets for as low as a quarter on the dollar, allowing them to build and sell homes at prices that compete with (and even beat) foreclosures and short sales. Many builders have also successfully diversified into other areas of construction, including remodeling, light commercial, and multi-family.

These are some of the key growth factors cited by the 525 Home builders that responded to Professional Builder’s 2012 Market Outlook Survey. More than four in 10 survey respondents (41.6 percent) said they anticipate higher revenue in 2012, while only about 22 percent expect revenue to drop — this coming off a year when only 21 percent of the builders had revenue growth and nearly half (48.1 percent) experienced a drop (Charts 1 and 2). Moreover, slightly more than a quarter of builders surveyed (27.4 percent) said they expect to build more homes in 2012 than in 2011, while 24 percent anticipate building fewer homes (Chart 4). The numbers aren’t shocking, but they are indicative of an industry that looks to finally be on the upswing — albewit a lethargic one.

 

 

When it comes to key growth opportunities for 2012, the largest number of respondents (36.8 percent) cited remodeling activities, followed by building energy-efficient homes (33.3 percent), diversifying their service offering (29.9 percent), focusing on upscale clientele (27.0 percent), and light-commercial work (25.3 percent) (Chart 9).

Lack of Builder and buyer financing and the overall economy were cited as top business challenges heading into 2012. More than half of respondents (50.5 percent) said the ongoing recession will be a key business obstacle, while nearly a third (30.3 percent) said business banking will be a top challenge. Other key obstacles include soft Home prices, government regulations, and competing with foreclosures (Chart 8).

  

     

      

 
 
 
 
 
 


 

8 markets where buying is cheaper than renting

Because of low Home prices and demands for rental units, it’s less expensive to buy than it is to rent in some cities.

By Mary Beth Nevulis, HousingZone Contributing Editor
August 24, 2011
 
 
 
multifamily housing, rental housing, single family housing, apartment
 

Home prices have dropped so dramatically and demand for rental units has increased so much that it's now cheaper to buy a two-bedroom Home than to rent one in most major U.S. cities, according to CNN Money.

According to real-estate website Trulia, buying was cheaper than renting in 74 percent of the country's 50 largest cities in July. In just 12 percent of the cities, including New York, Seattle, and San Francisco, renting was cheaper. In the remaining 14 percent of cities, renting was less expensive but close to the cost of buying.

Top buyer’s markets:

  • Las Vegas
  • Detroit
  • Mesa, Ariz.
  • Fresno, Calif.
  • Arlington, Texas
  • Sacramento, Calif.
  • Phoenix
  • Jacksonville, Fla.

 Top renter's markets:

  • New York
  • Ft. Worth, Texas
  • Omaha, Neb.
  • Seattle
  • San Francisco
  • Kansas City, Mo.

 

For more information: http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/16/real_estate/buy_rent/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

 
 
 
 

 
Poll Finds Big Disconnect Between Washington Policymakers and Voters on Value of Housing
photo

Nearly three out of four American voters believe that it is reasonable and appropriate for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership, a sentiment that cuts across partisan and regional lines across the country, according to a recent poll conducted on behalf of NAHB.

Further, an overwhelming majority of respondents oppose eliminating the mortgage interest deduction and would be less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wants to do away with this vital tax incentive.

“Despite the current housing downturn, Americans still see homeownership as a core value and a key building block of being in the middle class and creating strong jobs in their communities,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, which conducted the survey along with Public Opinion Strategies.

“The bottom line: The bipartisan consensus outside the Beltway is that owning a Home remains an essential part of the American Dream and voters would strongly oppose any efforts by lawmakers to increase barriers to homeownership,” she said.

Two thousand likely 2012 voters were surveyed from May 3 through May 9 to assess the public’s attitude in the wake of the Great Recession towards housing, the mortgage interest deduction and the value of homeownership.

The survey included data from key political “swing areas,” broken out by House Republican freshmen seats, National Journal political analyst Charlie Cook’s swing House and Senate seats, and Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza’s presidential toss-up states.

For a Cook Political Report column in the June 4 National Journal on some of the political implications of the survey findings, click here.

Among the poll’s key findings:

  • 73% of all respondents — both owners and renters — believe the federal government should provide tax incentives to promote homeownership. This support for housing runs strong among all party affiliations, with 79% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 68% of Independents agreeing with this statement.

    76% of respondents among the Cook Report’s key Senate races, 75% of voters in the Cook Report’s swing House districts, 75% among Cillizza’s presidential swing states and 71% of voters residing in GOP House freshmen districts voiced their support for the federal government to provide tax incentives to encourage homeownership.

  • 71% of voters oppose proposals to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction, and 63% oppose efforts to reduce it.

    A majority are also against eliminating the deduction for interest paid on Home equity loans, ending the deduction for interest paid on a second Home, limiting the deduction for those earning more than $250,000 per year or capping the deduction for Home owners with mortgages over $500,000.

  • By a more than two-to-one margin (57% to 26%), voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports eliminating the mortgage interest deduction.

    These figures held firm across the political spectrum, with 63% of Republicans, 56% of Independents, 55% of Democrats and 61% of tea party supporters saying they would be less likely to support a candidate who favored killing the deduction.

    58% of voters residing in House GOP freshmen districts, 58% in the Cook Report’s House swing districts, 56% among the Cook Report’s Senate toss-up races and 54% of voters living in Cillizza’s presidential swing states said that they would be less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.

  • Even when told that getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction would help ease the federal budget deficit, 65% of voters opposed any proposal to abolish the housing tax provision.

    This strong consensus cuts across partisan lines, with 69% of Republicans, 69% of Independents and 59% of Democrats opposing eliminating the deduction.

  • Saving for a downpayment and closing costs is seen as the biggest barrier to homeownership.

Among voters who are aware of proposals under consideration by Washington policymakers to raise the downpayment requirements for a Home loan, 92% believe it will make it more difficult to buy a Home.

Six federal agencies are proposing a national standard to require a minimum 20% downpayment, which would be opposed by households most likely to be affected — mortgage holders and renters ages 18 to 54. Among voters in these age groups, 59% of renters and 58% of those holding a mortgage oppose adding that obstacle to buying a Home.

“The polling found that there is a significant disconnect between Washington policymakers and the nation’s electorate when it comes to the mortgage interest deduction, the importance of homeownership and the need to keep housing a national priority,” said Neil Newhouse, a partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies.

“The Administration and some in Congress are floating plans to curtail or even abolish the mortgage interest deduction and impose changes that would make it much more difficult and expensive to get a Home loan,” he said.

“This is in direct opposition to the views of most Americans, who want the government to encourage growth in the housing market and to maintain tax incentives to keep housing affordable.”

The polling results also show:

  • 75% of voters say that owning a Home is the best long-term investment they can make.

  • 73% of voters who do not now own a Home say that it is a goal of theirs to eventually buy a Home.

  • An even greater percentage of Home owners — 95% — say they are happy with their decision to own a Home, and believe that owning their own Home is important.

  • 80% of Home owners would advise a close friend or family member just starting out to buy a Home.

  • Americans believe that owning their own Home is as important as being successful at their job or being able to pay for a family member’s education.

“Those in Congress who believe that homeownership and housing choice should no longer be national priorities would be well-served to study the results of this poll and hear what the American people think,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen.

“To put it another way, America’s voters have spoken,” said Nielsen. “If Congress abandons policies to support the goal of homeownership and to keep housing affordable, lawmakers could be in for a rude awakening in the 2012 elections.”

Public Opinion Strategies is a national political and public affairs research firm based in Alexandria, Va. Founded in 1991, it has conducted more than 6 million interviews with voters and consumers in all 50 states and over two dozen foreign countries.

Lake Research Partners is a leading public opinion and political strategy research firm providing expert research-based strategy for campaigns, issue advocacy groups, foundations, unions and non-profit organizations.

For more information, email Blake Smith at NAHB, or call him at 800-368-5242 x8583.

 
 
 

  

TWIN CITIES AREA

  MAR '11 MAR '10 Percent Change
(compared to one year prior)
New listings 6,977 9,991 - 30%
Active listings 24,112 25,420 - 5%
Months supply 7.70 6.50 + 18%
Pending sales 4,162 5,051 - 18%
Median sales price $140,000 $165,000 - 15%
Cumulative days on the market 152 130 + 17%
Average showings* 15 16 - 6%
In the last 30 days 52% of properties have had a price adjustment.
For every sale, there are 6 properties that remain on the market.
       
       
*Edina Realty Appointment Center statistics

Based on information from the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS, Inc. Data collected from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF Minnesota, INC., for properties in the 13-county region exclusively.

Information provided by: Edina Realty
6800 France Ave. S, Suite 600, Edina, MN 55435
 
 
 

 
 

Buying a house is one of the largest financial investments many people will ever make. Therefore, it makes sense that people buying a house want to get a good deal.

One of the factors in determining how much you will pay for your Home is the mortgage rate. The selling price of the Home is easy to understand. But, you need to factor in the interest rate to determine your monthly payment, as well as how much you will pay for a Home over the lifetime of the loan.

When rates are low, Home affordability increases. And conversely, when rates go up, the amount that buyers can afford decreases. In fact, when rates increase by 1 percent over their current level, the price of a Home would have to drop nearly 11 percent to match today's payment.

Right now, mortgage rates are close to historic lows. While we don't know when mortgage rates will climb back up, it inevitably will happen. If you want to extend your buying power, consider buying a Home today. Get started now

 
 

 
 

TWIN CITIES AREA

  JAN '11 JAN '10 Percent Change
(compared to one year prior)
New listings 5,569 6,598 - 16%
Active listings 23,880 20,899 + 14%
Months supply 7.60 5.50 + 38%
Pending sales 2,838 2,736 + 4%
Median sales price $140,000 $157,000 - 11%
Cumulative days on the market 146 133 + 10%
Average showings* 15 16 - 6%
In the last 30 days 55% of properties have had a price adjustment.
For every sale, there are 8 properties that remain on the market.
       
       
*Edina Realty Appointment Center statistics

Based on information from the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS, Inc. Data collected from the REGIONAL MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE OF Minnesota, INC., for properties in the 13-county region exclusively.

This email was sent by: Edina Realty
6800 France Ave. S, Suite 600, Edina, MN 55435

 


 

Saint Paul Pioneer Press (St. Paul, Minn.) January 14, 2011

In Twin Cities, Home Prices Up; Appraisals are Down

 

By Gita Sitaramiah, Pioneer Press, St. Paul, Minn.

Jan. 14--The housing bust in the Twin Cities now has a silver lining: After steep price declines the past few years, the Twin Cities median Home price inched up 2.3 percent in 2010 over the previous year.

Still, demand is weak, as sales last year slumped to their lowest level in eight years. Among the contributing factors: Some buyers are running into trouble closing deals because of appraisals coming in lower than offers.

Area Realtor groups reported Thursday that the midpoint sale price of a Home in the 13-county metro area rose to $169,900 in 2010. For the year ahead, local Realtors associations see the median sale price again increasing to $175,000, a 3 percent rise.

"The big difference now is things are starting to stabilize," said Pat Paulson of the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.

Reasons behind the price upswing last year included more upper-bracket homes sold and strong demand early in the year because of the federal tax credit for homebuyers, which had an April 30 purchase agreement deadline. The year-over-year price gains in the first seven months were followed by declines in four of the last five months of 2010.

Another key measure of housing prices shows soft price dynamics in the Twin Cities. The most recent Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index, which measures repeat sales of the same houses in 20 metropolitan areas, showed a 2.8 percent year-over-year decline in Home prices here in October compared with a 0.8 percent dip for the national

index average. Case-Shiller predicts Home prices will continue to drop this year.

George Karvel, a professor of real estate at the University of St. Thomas, isn't ready to call the year's price increase posted by local Realtors a sign of turnaround until inventory levels and foreclosures drop significantly.

"It would certainly be safe to say that in our market, housing prices have appeared to stabilize," he said.

The number of homes on the market was flat in 2010 compared with 2009. Sales dropped 16.8 percent from last year, to 37,608. Realtors predict sales this year will increase to 40,000, but listings are expected to rise as well.

Foreclosures peaked in 2009, when more than 43 percent or about two of five Home sales were what is known as "lender mediated." The foreclosure rate in 2010 improved slightly, dipping to 40 percent. Realtors on Thursday said they expect metro foreclosures to drop below the 40 percent distressed sales rate in 2011.

Sales of existing homes nationwide rose 5.6 percent in November from the year-ago period, according to the most recent data from the National Association of Realtors. Real-estate observers have noted Twin Cities buyers appear more cautious despite a higher jobless rate nationally than in Minnesota. Some attribute this to a more conservative approach here or suspect that many prospective local buyers are timing the market, hoping for even better deals in spring.

By contrast, selling was no trouble for Jeff Johnson, who put his Cathedral Hill condo on the market for $215,000 around Thanksgiving and expected to wait six months for an offer. He accepted an offer just three weeks later and closes next month on an offer of $201,000.

Next article provided by Synergy Land Co. 

Buying is another story. Johnson found a three-bedroom, three-bath house he loves on St. Paul's Linwood Avenue. It had been on the market nearly a year, and getting his $415,000 offer accepted by the seller was the easy part. Getting a loan is proving to be work.

"The house is actually appraising for significantly less than I'm offering," Johnson said. He's asking for another appraisal but may have to walk away. "I'm in the best position I could possibly be in, but it's not my ideal," he said.

After trying to sell his house near the state Capitol for more than a year, David Schmit took the Home off the market. He said his home's modular style and location went against it, but he wasn't desperate to sell.

He wound up getting lucky when he got an offer two months later for close to his $215,000 asking price. What he believed he did right was to price the Home at the lower end of what his Realtor suggested, and he advises other sellers to do the same.

"In this market, you can't be as greedy," he said. "You have to take what you can get and walk away from it."

 

 

 

 Nearly Eight in 10 Americans Still Believe Buying a Home Makes Good Financial Sense

Washington, October 14, 2010

Nearly eight out of 10 respondents believe buying a Home is a good financial decision, despite ongoing challenges with the economy and housing market. That’s according to the 2010 National Housing Pulse Survey, an annual report released today by the National Association of Realtors®.

The survey, which measures how affordable housing issues affect consumers, also found job security concerns to be the highest in eight years of sampling, with 70 percent of Americans saying that job layoffs and unemployment are a big problem in their area; eight in 10 cite these issues as a barrier to homeownership.

“The real issue facing the nation’s economy right now is that many Americans can’t find meaningful work to support their families,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. “While a job recovery is what’s needed right now to get the economy and housing market back on the right track, owning a Home continues to be part of the American Dream and one of the best long-term investments in your future.”

Despite economic uncertainty, 68 percent of those surveyed still believe now is a good time to buy a Home; while that number is down from last year (75 percent), it’s up from 2008 (66 percent) and 2007 (59 percent). Lower Home prices and record-low mortgage interest rates may be attracting buyers to the housing market – more than one-fourth of renters said they are thinking more about buying a Home than they were a year ago. Sixty-three percent of renter respondents said that owning a Home is a priority in their future, and nearly 40 percent said it was one of their highest priorities.

Lower Home prices have improved affordability. In fact, the percentage of renters who are worried that the cost of housing is getting so unaffordable that they will never be able to buy a Home has decreased steadily since 2007, from 63 to 57 percent.

Despite improved affordability, 79 percent of respondents still consider having enough money for down payment and closing costs to be among of the biggest obstacles to buying a Home. Another obstacle is a lack of confidence in their ability to be approved for a loan, reported by 73 percent of respondents.

The good news is that Americans are seeing more stability in the real estate market. Nearly seven out of 10 believe that Home values have stabilized in their area; the same number expects Home sales to remain about the same through the end of the year.

While more than half (51 percent) say foreclosures are a problem in their area, the rate of foreclosures is also seen as stabilizing; 51 percent say the rate is about the same as last year. Thirty-six percent of respondents cite the recession, loss of jobs and the poor economy as the main reason for the ongoing foreclosure problem. This has also led to a slight increase in the number of people who believe the federal government should take a more active role overseeing loans and mortgages (44 percent, up from 43 percent last year).

While nearly seven out of 10 say it’s harder to sell a Home in their area today than it was a year ago, it’s less of a concern from last year when the number was 10 percentage points higher. This is most likely the result of lower Home inventories.

The 2010 National Housing Pulse Survey is conducted by American Strategies and Myers Research & Strategic Services for NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program. The telephone survey was among 1,209 adults living in the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

NAR’s Housing Opportunity Program, www.realtor.org/housingopportunity, was created in 2002 to encourage local Realtor® associations to create initiatives that help increase housing opportunities available to consumers and make affordable housing more readily available in their communities.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Military Tax Credit Available$8,000 Tax Credit Extension For Military Serving Outside The U.S.

The IRS states:  Members of the military and certain other federal employees serving outside the U.S. have an extra year to buy a principal residence in the U.S. and qualify for the credit. Thus, an eligible taxpayer must buy, or enter into a binding contract to buy, a principal residence on or before April 30, 2011. If a binding contract is entered into by that date, the taxpayer has until June 30, 2011, to close on the purchase. Members of the uniformed services, members of the Foreign Service and employees of the intelligence community are eligible for this special rule. It applies to any individual (and, if married, the individual’s spouse) who serves on qualified official extended duty service outside of the United States for at least 90 days during the period beginning after Dec. 31,2008 and ending May1,2008

 
 
 
 
 Women Home Buyers, a Major Economic Force

By Karen Dry and Linda Hebert

Rising female consumer power is changing the way companies design, make and market products — and it’s more than just adding pastels.

Women are a force not to be underestimated, pushing 80% of consumer spending in the U.S. alone.

They also are the deciding factor in 87% of all household purchases and, according to the marketing research firm Smith-Dahmer Associates, nearly 91% of all new Home purchasing decisions are made or influenced by female buyers.

And should a man make the final purchasing decision, well, his tastes and buying influences are determined by how he was raised by his mother or other prominent women in his life.

Women are the driving force of our economy. According to Northwestern Mutual, high-net-worth women account for 39% of the country’s top wealth earners; 2.5 million of them have combined assets of $4.2 trillion. More than 1.3 million women professionals and executives earn in excess of $100,000 annually. Nearly half — 43% — of Americans with more than $500,000 in assets are female.

Over the next decade, women will control two-thirds of consumer wealth in the U.S. and be the beneficiaries of the largest transference of wealth in our country’s history, according to Claire Behar, senior partner and director at the public relations and marketing firm Fleishman-Hillard in New York. Estimates range from $12 trillion to $40 trillion.

Many boomer women will experience a double inheritance windfall from their parents and their husbands. Luxury branding resonates with boomer woman.

The biggest mistake often made by marketers — and 68% of marketing executives in the U.S. are men — is assuming they know what women want without even asking.

“If the consumer had a sex, it would be female,” says Bridget Brennan, author of “Why She Buys: The New Strategy for Reaching the World’s Most Powerful Consumers.” “If the business world had a sex, it would be male. And therein lies the pickle.”

Taking a woman-centric approach means designing from her perspective, Brennan says. “At its core, it means understanding the female so innately that you can actually anticipate what she wants even before asking — especially during the buying experience,” she says in her book.

 
 
 
 
Hopeful Signs for Housing Remain

While much of the country is in the middle of the hottest summer in recent memory, residential construction appears to be just entering an early spring — with hopeful signs of more meaningful growth ahead.

At first glance, the June housing starts report appeared to be negative, with activity declining 5.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000 units, down from a pace of 578,000 units in May. But on closer examination there were some positive signs.

Single-family starts fell a modest 0.7% — from 457,000 to 454,000 — suggesting that they are at or near bottom after dropping off with the expiration at the end of April of the Home buyer tax credit, which advanced a significant amount of housing demand into that month.

Although single-family building permits fell 3.4% in June — from 436,000 to 421,000 — this was due to a 7.8% decline in the South; the other regions were either flat (the West) or up slightly (the Northeast and Midwest).

Even multifamily construction, which continues to struggle against forces such as weak rents and the scarcity of financing, provided some basis for optimism. Largely responsible for the drop in total starts in June, multifamily starts fell 21.5% to a yearly rate of 95,000, down from May when they were running at a 12-month high of 121,000.

But the picture is not so bleak when viewed in the broader context of quarterly averages, which remove much of the noise created by the volatile monthly numbers.

Multifamily production in the second quarter proceeded at an annual pace of 111,000 units, which was up 19.4% from 93,000 in this year’s first quarter and up 45.0% from 76,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Meanwhile, multifamily building permits in June jumped 19.6% to 165,000, their highest level since February 2009, from May’s 138,000. On a quarterly basis, permits rose 9.5% to 142,000 in the second quarter, up from 130,000 in the previous quarter.

At worst, multifamily construction appears to have found a solid bottom, and more optimistically appears to be on a steady, if erratic, upward course.

NAHB is forecasting that residential construction will slowly improve throughout the second half of this year and into next year, bolstered by continued low mortgage rates, affordable housing prices and an improving jobs market.

But Builders, Consumers Are in a Pessimistic Mood

Conducted and released before the June housing starts and building permits numbers were reported, July’s NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell to 14, down from 16 in June, indicating that builders see little grounds for optimism at the present time. Expiration of the Home buyer tax credit, ongoing competition from foreclosed properties and short sales and difficulty in obtaining AD&C credit all contributed to the downbeat mood of the builders surveyed by NAHB.

Traces of rising optimism were found in the Northeast and the Midwest where the index rose, albeit to levels that remained low, and that improvement was supported by an increase in June’s single-family building permits for the two regions.

At the same time, slipping building confidence in the South was matched by a drop in the region’s permits. The HMI for the West also indicated an erosion of confidence, but the region’s single-family permits were flat.

Meanwhile, portraying gloomier consumers, the University of Michigan’s  Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 66.5 in July from June’s 76.0. Beneath the surface there was positive news for housing, with 76% of the households surveyed believing that now is a good time to purchase a house, the second highest reading over the past 14 months and only one percentage point below the peak level for this period.

Further improvement in the economy may enable more households to act on this belief.

The Economy Struggles Through a Slow Patch

The dejected spirits of builders and consumers have not been helped by recent indications that the economy is slowing down. Industrial production rose a mere 0.1% in June, though it was still up a healthy 8.2% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, capacity utilization held steady at 74.1%, its highest level over the last year and a half.

Consumers retrenched in June, cutting retail sales 0.5% from May, the second monthly reduction in a row. Nonetheless, sales were still up 4.9% from a year earlier.

Even small movements in consumer spending, which is responsible for two-thirds of the gross domestic product (GDP), can have major implications for growth. NAHB believes that consumer spending will slowly increase over coming months, helping to support the economic recovery.

Inflation Still Under Control

The seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) was down in June for the third consecutive month, falling 0.1% following a decline of 0.2% in May, but up 1.1% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, core inflation — excluding food and energy prices — rose a modest 0.9% from a year earlier.

The low rate of inflation gives the Federal Reserve the room to maintain its expansionary monetary policy and to keep mortgage rates low.

For the past year, the rental component of the CPI has been essentially flat, and as of June, it was down 0.1% from a year earlier. Homeownership “prices” — measured by using an owner’s equivalent rent, which is largely driven by the rent index without utilities — has also been drifting down, declining 0.3% over the past year.

The rent and owner components of the CPI make up 31% of the CPI. The soft rental market and excess vacancies have kept rents from rising, which has been a challenge to apartment owners who have seen other costs increase. It also has made it more difficult for multifamily projects to obtain financing.

The June Producer Price Index for finished goods also fell for the third month in a row, down 0.5% after declining by 0.3% in May. Nonetheless, the June reading was up 2.8% from a year earlier.

Weakness in construction contributed to a 0.7% drop in June for overall building materials prices for both single-family and multifamily construction, their first decrease in eight months. However, they were still up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, from a year earlier. Major contributors to June’s price decline were falling lumber, energy and copper prices.

 

News Menu